Yuku free message boards

badgerjon66 wrote:

---

And your information on Rasmussen comes from where 123? Discredited by whom? Moveon? Are you aware they survey likely voters instead of the population universe?

"During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years. " http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll check it out. Note also that the shift toward Romney in NC is very recent. That trrend might revers, or might start to show up in other polls over several weeks.

Of course Obama can win, and he can win without a number of states, but there is a reason they chose to put the convention in Charlotte, and it wasn't because they thought they did not need NC. It was key to him winning last time. The choice is problematic right now: http://www.bloomberg.com/...-awry-for-democrats.html

But maintain your overconfidence. A lot of Dems don't share your belief that Obama is in the "dominant" position expected for an incumbent with almost total press support just after his opponent finished a divisive primary. For different reasons, I share your hope for an improving economy, but it's really not happening yet. I agree that an Obama re-election will lead to a great deal more pain for all Americans as he exercises his "greater flexibility".

Did you read the Newyorker piece"

The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.