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Wisconsin is coming off a beat down at the hands of Penn State on its very own Camp Randall turf. It was not pretty. I haven't left a Badger game early in maybe a decade and was out by the beginning of the fourth quarter. This team had its weaknesses exposed the previous two weeks and they were laid bare without exception last Saturday night.

Iowa is coming off its most impressive performance of the year, a convincing 45 to 9 win over the Indiana Hoosiers. They looked good, but then again it was Indiana. Lots of teams will get a dose of get well against the Hoosiers this year.

UW Offensive Line v. Iowa Defensive Line

The UW offensive line has struggled the last three weeks against very good defensive lines. It will be interesting to see how they respond. The Hawks DL is good, but not in the same class with Michigan or Penn State. The Badgers may be missing starters Carimi and Urbick. That makes this a tougher call. Moffit has player the best of the OL starters.

The strength of the Iowa DL is in the middle with Mitch King and Matt Kroul. The Badgers have struggled against this duo the last two years. Iowa has 11 sacks on the year and allows 3.10 yards per rush and opponents average under 100 yards rushing per game.

The loss of Urbik in this game is particularly important due to the presence of King and Kroul in the middle. Key matchups are Nagy, Moffit, and Kemp against King and Kroul. With Urbick and Carimi out the Hawks definitely have an edge.

Plus Iowa

UW Backfield v. Iowa Linebackers

Big Bad John Clay is being brought along slowly. I'm sure there are reasons for this. Clay has the feet and size to be a difference maker in a game like this. P.J. runs hard and Brown has preformed well. The problem this group is having is the eight in the box defenses they have been consistently seeing. Until UW can throw the ball with some efficiency the backfield will have to deal with an extra defender.

The Iowa backers are good not great players. These are big backers who maybe lack the foot speed UW has seen the last few weeks. Key matchup is Angerer against Clay and Hill. You want to make these backers run.

Plus UW

UW QB and Receivers v. Iowa Secondary

This is an unknown, because I have no idea who will start at QB for UW. Evridge has lost confidence so I think it's more likely D. Sherer will take the reigns. Either way, Graham and Beckum have to play a big role and provide a comfort zone with the short and intermediate routes.

It's not a great Iowa secondary, but they do have four interceptions on the year and the linebackers have four. Again not as fast as what the Badgers have seen the last few weeks. The bottom line is that Iowa's secondary is playing with some confidence while UW's passing game is in disarray. Key matchup is UW's tight ends against the Iowa linebackers and safeties. If Graham and Beckum are both healthy the plus for Iowa here could flip-flop to UW quicker than an economic recovery plan.

Plus Iowa

Iowa Offensive Line v. UW Defensive Line

Iowa's line is playing well. Two backs, Greene and Hampton had 100 yard games a week ago, which is a reflection of good line play.

UW's defensive line has been getting worn down. However, the match up against a traditional formation offense should help. The starting four is solid but they get little relief from the bench. Bytrum, Moore and Neguzu need to play more this week.

Plus Iowa

Iowa Backfield v. UW Linebackers

Greene is a good big ten back, who has plenty of power and some speed to go along with his size. He injured an ankle last week but played through. He may be fine or he may have swelled after the game. The second stringer, Hampton, is a freshman. Stanzi is not a runner.

I like the matchup here for the quicker UW linebackers. The defensive line needs to tie things up and keep the UW backers clean to the play. Levy and Casillias will have a speed advantage and may be able to force a turnover or two. Not the challenge of a running QB with Iowa.

Key matchup is Green against McFadden in the middle.

Plus UW

Iowa QB and Receivers v. UW Secondary

Like UW this is not a strong suit for Iowa. Stanzi is completing 64% of his passes, but it tends to be a short to intermediate game. Leading receivers are Brodell and Johnson-Koulianous. The latter has good speed but lacks size. Brodell does everything right but lacks great speed. He reminds me a bit of Luke Swan.

UW plays a soft zone and tries to avoid giving up the big play. This was a successful strategy until last week. The corners may be the strength. Langford, Brinkley and Goins have been providing good coverage. Someone needs to step up and make a play.

Key matchup is Brodell against Langford. Both are solid players who won't beat themselves. Langford usually has a speed deficit, but not the case versus Brodell.

A push.

Special Teams:

Both teams' special units are performing well. Although UW gave up a TD on a punt return last week. Still waiting for Gilreath to take one the distance. Nortman must bounce back from a couple bad punts last week. Iowa may try to pressure. The field goal kickers are both converting a high percentage.

A push

Analysis:

Looking at the stats for this one, Iowa seems to have a small edge in the average yard per rush and also defending the rush. The Iowa passing game is more efficient right now. Iowa lacks great team speed overall and had not played anyone of note. UW should be playing at a higher RPM. Time of possession will be big here. TOP has been huge the past three years for the Badgers. At this point they are barely winning that battle over their opponents with a 30.39 advantage per contest. That stat alone is very telling. Iowa it at 32.00 TOP per game. Saturday I expect both teams to crowd the box and force the other team to beat them throwing the ball. I don't think either team is efficient enough to win throwing it. Hence, I think this boils down to a field position, defensive game. The punters will play a big role. The team that wins the turnover battle should prevail. Both teams are dead even in turnover margin. The pluses are three Iowa, two UW, and two pushes. I think UW finds a way to capitalize on their speed advantage in this game. Badgers bounce back.

Prediction:

UW 24

Iowa 17