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Nice win tonight against NW, although the Badgers did find a way to make it interesting.

I wouldn't have bet on 5-5 halfway through the Big Ten season after that opening Iowa loss. Next weekend at Michigan and Michigan State will be huge.

Where do they need to end up in the Big Ten to have a chance at the NCAA's? Their bad non-conference record is likely a killer.

I'm assuming you meant 12-8 and 11-9.

Going through the second half schedule and factoring in where the matches will be played leaves me with this, divided into three piles:

Losses: Penn State (H), Illinois (A)
Wins: Indiana (H), Purdue (H), Ohio State (H), Northwestern (A). The Badgers are capable of losing any of these, but they shouldn't. If they do lose one of them, nothing else matters.
Toss-Ups (defined generously for the Badgers): Michigan (A), Michigan State (A), Minnesota (H), Iowa (A)

The Badgers likely have to win two of the toss-ups to have any chance. They have to somehow find a way to get a split this weekend. Scratch, claw, bite, steal. I don't care, just get a win.