In fact, IIRC, the old-old Badgermaniac OTWC board before there was a political board.
Today marks four years since the invasion. My vintage 2007 comments are in italics.
Poll #1 Assuming a March 18 kick-off, how long will the next war go?
The 1991 Gulf war lasted 43+ days. The air war went on 39 days and the ground war another 100 hours. How long will the whole thing go this time?
I'm guessing the Iraqis, fighting in their homeland, will be tougher than they were in 1991 in Kuwait. Their tactics will be a bit improved and there will be some sporatic urban warfare that lasts a while.
I'm guessing around 100 days, or until the end of June.
Results (total votes = 22):
1 - 10 days 2 / 9.1%
11 - 40 days 14 / 63.6%
41 - 90 days 1 / 4.5%
91 -120 days 1 / 4.5%
More than 120 days (July 16) 4 / 18.2%
- Well until "Mission Accomplished", the poll answers were pretty darned close. Of course, the little technical detail of pacifying Iraq still hasn't been ironed out.
*******
Poll #2 How many US Military Dead will there be?
The number of US Military dead in the last war was amazingly low considering we were facing a dug-in million man army. I don't recall the exact number, but they were a bit under 200 with most of those coming from one rocket hit on a barracks in Saudi.
Assuming a more difficult war this time and some deadly house to house fighting and some deadly chemical weapons usage on the part of Saddam (the weapons he says he doesn't have), I'm guessing close to 5,000.
Hope I'm too high.
Results (total votes = 17):
0 - 200 (as in the 1st Gulf War) 6 / 35.3%
201 - 500 3 / 17.6%
501 - 2,000 3 / 17.6%
2,001 - 5,000 2 / 11.8%
more than 5,000 3 / 17.6%
I think that by the end of 2008, my 5,000 guess will be about right on the mark. Of course, for entirely wrong reasons. I was thinking of poison gas casualties, not a protracted occupation.
Poll #3 - How many civilians will be killed?
This is the final, and in my mind the hardest to estimate.
Will Saddam put military targets in areas surrounded my civilians? Almost certainly.
Will he attack Saudi and Israel with deadly biological and chemical weapons? Seems likely.
Will his henchmen in the US attack NY, Chicago, DC or LA with a dirty bomb? Certainly possible.
Very, very difficult.
I'll guess 75,000 civilians killed.
50K in Iraq
15K elsewhere in the Middle East
10K in attacks in the US.
Again, I hope I'm way too pessimistic.
Results (total votes = 14):
0 -5,000 3 / 21.4%
5,001 - 10,000 5 / 35.7%
10,001 - 50,000 2 / 14.3%
50,001 - 100,000 2 / 14.3%
more than 100,000 2 / 14.3%
**********
Sadly, I was wrong about this figure. Whether one takes the UN figure or the US Military's figure, the number is higher. At least 200,000 so far. Plus 2,000,000 refugees.
Happily, I guess, the number of civilians killed in neighboring countries is close to zero or at zero.
My 75,000 figure was ridiculed in 2003. Too bad I was low.
Edited to add italics for a 2007 comment.
Today marks four years since the invasion. My vintage 2007 comments are in italics.
Poll #1 Assuming a March 18 kick-off, how long will the next war go?
The 1991 Gulf war lasted 43+ days. The air war went on 39 days and the ground war another 100 hours. How long will the whole thing go this time?
I'm guessing the Iraqis, fighting in their homeland, will be tougher than they were in 1991 in Kuwait. Their tactics will be a bit improved and there will be some sporatic urban warfare that lasts a while.
I'm guessing around 100 days, or until the end of June.
Results (total votes = 22):
1 - 10 days 2 / 9.1%
11 - 40 days 14 / 63.6%
41 - 90 days 1 / 4.5%
91 -120 days 1 / 4.5%
More than 120 days (July 16) 4 / 18.2%
- Well until "Mission Accomplished", the poll answers were pretty darned close. Of course, the little technical detail of pacifying Iraq still hasn't been ironed out.
*******
Poll #2 How many US Military Dead will there be?
The number of US Military dead in the last war was amazingly low considering we were facing a dug-in million man army. I don't recall the exact number, but they were a bit under 200 with most of those coming from one rocket hit on a barracks in Saudi.
Assuming a more difficult war this time and some deadly house to house fighting and some deadly chemical weapons usage on the part of Saddam (the weapons he says he doesn't have), I'm guessing close to 5,000.
Hope I'm too high.
Results (total votes = 17):
0 - 200 (as in the 1st Gulf War) 6 / 35.3%
201 - 500 3 / 17.6%
501 - 2,000 3 / 17.6%
2,001 - 5,000 2 / 11.8%
more than 5,000 3 / 17.6%
I think that by the end of 2008, my 5,000 guess will be about right on the mark. Of course, for entirely wrong reasons. I was thinking of poison gas casualties, not a protracted occupation.
Poll #3 - How many civilians will be killed?
This is the final, and in my mind the hardest to estimate.
Will Saddam put military targets in areas surrounded my civilians? Almost certainly.
Will he attack Saudi and Israel with deadly biological and chemical weapons? Seems likely.
Will his henchmen in the US attack NY, Chicago, DC or LA with a dirty bomb? Certainly possible.
Very, very difficult.
I'll guess 75,000 civilians killed.
50K in Iraq
15K elsewhere in the Middle East
10K in attacks in the US.
Again, I hope I'm way too pessimistic.
Results (total votes = 14):
0 -5,000 3 / 21.4%
5,001 - 10,000 5 / 35.7%
10,001 - 50,000 2 / 14.3%
50,001 - 100,000 2 / 14.3%
more than 100,000 2 / 14.3%
**********
Sadly, I was wrong about this figure. Whether one takes the UN figure or the US Military's figure, the number is higher. At least 200,000 so far. Plus 2,000,000 refugees.
Happily, I guess, the number of civilians killed in neighboring countries is close to zero or at zero.
My 75,000 figure was ridiculed in 2003. Too bad I was low.
Edited to add italics for a 2007 comment.
*****
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under the bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
-- Anatole France (1844-1924), French critic, writer, "Penguin Island"
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under the bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
-- Anatole France (1844-1924), French critic, writer, "Penguin Island"
