Before we get started, a few basics about this preview. This breakdown is designed to achieve one goal: promote football discussion. The internet has an
abundance of flamers, chest puffers, and fans with a stiffie who tout the invincibility of their respective team. We dont intend to serve that crowd here. If
you want to flame, I suspect you will find other venues more attractive. This is a statistical/analytical look at how teams may fare based on past performance
and individual player strengths. I welcome all responses positive or negative. Last year we had numerous responses from fans of opposing teams, which greatly
enhanced the dialogue.
I am a Badger fan, unabashed. Nonetheless, I pride myself on providing a unbiased view of each teams strengths and weaknesses. If any homerism creeps in, I assure you its unintentional. In sum, this is a product of my football head not my football heart.
This is a different type of preview than you will find in a newspaper, magazine or as far as I know even on the internet. This preview attempts to evaluate the actual units that are on the field at the same time. Look below, you will get the hang of it quickly, its not complicated. We offer a unique perspective from the traditional QB v.QB and O-Line v. O-Line breakdowns, which to me have never made sense. Under the system below team one may have the superior running game over team two, but not get a plus. This is because the rushing defense of team two is thought to be equal to (a push) or better than (a plus) team ones rushing attack. In the end it amounts to organized speculation as opposed to random speculation. But it is, nevertheless, speculation and intended for enjoyment. So I try to have fun with it.
Until we have some stats from the current year to rely on, the first few previews will draw heavily from the number of starters returning and rankings of units within their respective conferences by a couple publications. College football changes greatly from year to year due to attrition. While talent cannot be denied, experience counts for a lot. Returning experience that has produced winning results counts the most.
Unit rankings: from Phil Steele and Athlon
and returning starters
WSU: QB RB WR OL DL LB DB
Phil Steele 4 8 4 7 3 9 8
Athlon 3 7 4 7 9* 7 10
Starters 1 1 2 3 3 1 1
Badgers: QB RB WR OL DL LB DB
P. Steele 8 1 4 3 2 6 4
Athlon 5 2 3 3 2 2 1
Starters 0 2 3 4 3 2 2
* note the disparity of the publications in ranking the WSU DL
UW Offensive Line v. WSU Defense Line
Wisconsin returns four starters to a unit that was very young in 2006. They must replace the best left tackle in CFB-Joe Thomas. Three of the returnees were first year starters and Urbick changed positions from guard to tackle. Assuming a natural progression these four should be better players. Gabe Carimi, who will get the first crack at LT, is a huge, 6'8" 295 lbs, redshirt freshman with excellent athletic ability. Urbik is the units best player, although Coleman and Vanden Heuvel also have all conference potential. The unit is a consensus 3rd best in conference per publications. The unit is big, averaging over 6'6" and 315 lbs, and can drive block, but had trouble in 06 with small and quick defenders finding a seam in the middle and getting to the QB. This unit is working toward becoming an elite line in the words of the position coach. They should be more productive as a unit in 2007. The key is whether the left tackle can mesh with the other four and produce the team play that is crucial for good OL play.
WSU has a 6'8" 300lb defensive tackle, Ropati Pitoitua, who is labeled a great potential guy, but has never produced big numbers over the course of a season. Pitoitua was injured for much of last year, which hurt the units productivity. The other DT is well over 300lbs. The ends are smallish and built to rush Qbs in the pass oriented Pac 10. There is a possibility that Pitoitua will move to DE to bolster the Cougar line against the UW ground attack. The unit is ranked 3rd and 9th by PS and Athlon respectively. I take the median and give them a 6th unit rank in conference. This is a good unit.
The Cougar DL has too many question marks to give them a plus. Pitoituas size and huge wingspan may be an advantage against a spread team, but I believe UW will run power right at him and test his durability to hold up against pounding for four quarters. I dont envision UW dominating the WSU line, but I think they can get some push and allow P.J. Hill to get to the linebackers often enough to rush for about 120 yards. Smith may have another 50 yards. These yards will come late in the game as I expect the Cougars to stack the box with eight defenders early and test the Badger QB. A key individual matchup is the WSU defensive end who plays over Gabe Carimi at left tackle. Carimi must be sound in his technique and hold his own. The big Badger beef possess a size and power advantage and will not have any trouble finding these Cougar linemen.
Small Plus UW
UW Backfield v. WSU Linebackers
PJ. Hill is a top ten returning running back in the country. He has lost weight and improved his quickness over 2006. His backup, Lance Smith, is improving and needs to demonstrate consistency. Chris Pressley returns at fullback after missing all of 06 with a leg injury. He has also been on slim fast and in hopes of getting more square hits on opposing linebackers. Pressley has exceptional power which is difficult for other teams to simulate in practice. Both of these players have all conference potential as reflected in the units rank of one and two in the publications. Rentmeester is more than an adequate backup for Pressley and brings hands to the passing game.
The Cougar linebackers are tough lunch pail type players. No one jumps out as an outstanding individual, but they are all good players. The median unit rank is 8th in conference by the publications. The best player here is Trent who plays the middle and is a hard nosed guy although undersized at a listed 5'11" 219lbs. Trent may have some problems in pass coverage and is no match for the size and power Pressley can bring to the ground game. Mattlingly, an outside backer, suffered an ankle sprain in fall camp and may be slowed.
Provided the OL can create some running seams, Hill, Smith, and Pressley are too much for the Cougar linebackers to stand up to for four quarters. The Badger ground attack will take its toll in the third and fourth quarters.
A big plus for UW
UW QB and Receivers v. WSU Secondary
The Badgers return both WRs and AA candidate tight end/WR Travis Beckum. They must replace three year starter and vastly underrated QB John Stocco. UW won a lot of games with Stocco at the helm. Tyler Donovan poses more of a running threat than Stocco, but lacks a big time arm. Donovans two career starts both resulted in wins. Hubbard is a weapon that cannot be ignored by defensive coordinators and is primed for a big season. If Hubbard can eliminate the drops that plagued him in 06 he will play on Sundays. Swan is the sure handed possession receiver who always gets open and has an ability to make the big play. Beckum presents a match up nightmare for D coordinators as he is too fast for linebackers and too big for safeties. He demands attention in the defensive game plan. Beckums talent forces a defense to bracket him almost all the time. Thus, the opposing team must choose between eight men in the box or Beckum being covered one on one. The defender who draws Beckum is in a key individual matchup situation. Crooks is a more than adequate compliment to Beckum and a much better blocker. Two tightends are a staple for this offense. The unit has a 3/4 conference unit ranking.
WSU is returning three starters from a porous secondary. A bad thing or good thing? The replacements will either be three JC transfers or two JCs and one true freshman. There is an abundance of questions here and no one, including the WSU coaching staff, will have the answer until a couple games are played. A play maker cannot be identified. The lone returnee is a good player, but has been nursing a shoulder injury. Median unit rank is 9th.
Despite having a new starter at QB, this is a very good matchup for UW. The level of talent in the WSU secondary is an unknown, but even assuming very good talent, they will require time to come together, communicate, and play as a unit. These guys have not even practiced together for long much less prepared for a game. There will be some blown coverages and mismatches that UW can exploit. Cougar fans who believe UWs offense is limited to the run will be shocked to know the UW passing game had a higher efficiency rating in 2006 than WSU. Under offensive coordinator Paul Chryst the Badgers will take what a defense gives. If this means throwing on first down or second and short then so be it. This is not your Ron Dayne-Mike Samuel Badger offense. UW can and will throw the ball despite the relative inexperience at QB.
Big Plus UW.
WSU Offensive Line v. UW Defensive Line
The Cougars return three starters to this unit. The line was average in 06. There is one position switch with the LT moving to right tackle. Also, one of the players counted on to be a replacement, Roof, was suspended and has not practiced. No outstanding player here, but in a spread offense the linemen are programmed to pass block and the ball comes out of the QBs hand quickly. You dont need to be a pro-prospect lineman to be an effective player in this system. The unit is ranked 7th in conference.
While three starters return to this unit, the UW DL is best described as an enigma. Shaugnessy and Chapman have all-conference potential, however have not played to that level thus far. UW goes 8 deep and will rotate players. The ability to rotate is extremely helpful against a spread offense. Ware, the projected starting DE, missed the first two weeks of camp with a knee injury. He will play, but may not be full go. DT Hayden had a drop off in 06 compared to his production in 05 and has lost weight hoping to regain some quickness. This group can stop the power running game but will give up the 15 to 20 yard burst to a spread offense. This unit needs to take their game to the next level for UW to have a successful season. Newkirk (DT) and Cooper (DE) figure to play significant roles against WSU given their speed and quickness. A key individual matchup is Shaugnessy against the Cougar left tackle, Lesuma. The unit is ranked second in both publications, which I consider a bit high.
WSU has too many question marks to get the plus here. Nonetheless, the spread offense does not demand great things from an OL. UW has some questions to be answered, but has depth that will allow it to rotate players and keep them fresh to chase the passer and running backs.
A small UW plus
WSU Backfield v. UW Linebackers
The Cougs will be counting on sophomores Chris Ivory and Dwight Tardy when they run their one back set. Tardy had a team high 667 yards last season. The run game is based on deception, which UW can be vulnerable to occasionally. These backs are ranked 7/8 in conference. Ivory may be the most talented of the duo, but Tardy starts. Again, there is no player that jumps out as a difference maker.
The UW linebackers are the heart and soul of the UW defense. Levy and Casillas are proven performers, while Hodge who has played will start for the first time. This unit is ranked either 6th (PS) or 2nd (Athlon). Which prompts me to ask what film PS was watching? I rate these LB as the best unit on the Wisconsin team and would take them over Penn States group whether it be a brawl or a football game. They are fast, experienced, and can make plays. Casillas can turn you over, while Levy and Hodge seek to punish any ball carrier who wanders into their domain. Casillas at 215lbs is one the fastest badgers and can double as a defensive back. Levy converts to a stand up defensive end and possesses an innate ability to rush the passer. This versatility allows UW to change defenses without tipping their hand with substitution. Did I say I like this group a lot?
Big Plus UW
WSU QB and Receivers v. UW Secondary
The Cougars return Alex Brink at QB, who last year completed 60% of his passes and was rated the 16th best passer in the country. Brink is an excellent passer, but is not mobile and lacks a cannon arm. Despite Brinks numbers he is criticized by fans for the won/loss record. Given sufficient time, Brink is capable of picking apart a defense. Receivers Mike Bumpus and Brandon Gibson return following productive years in 2006. The other receiver, Dillon, is a speedster and return specialist. Bumpus has been a possession receiver while Gibson and Dillon can stretch the field. Brink is ranked third and the receivers fourth in conference. Gibson versus the UW corners or safeties is a key individual matchup. This unit is the strength of the team and hopes to carry the Cougars while the defense and OL develop.
The Badgers return two outstanding corners to their secondary. Al Langford is a solid technician who is always in proper position to make a play. What Langford lacks in speed he makes up for in smarts. Langford will see a lot of pigskin thrown his way, because Jack Ikegwuonu is a difference maker at the field corner position. Ike was ranked as the best player in the Big Ten by one publication. He possesses great size, speed, change of direction, and he will play on Sundays. The safety positions will be manned by Shane Carter and Aubrey Pleasant, a pair of red shirt sophomores. Carter has been a play maker during spring ball and fall camp, but both safeties lack game experience, and therefore must be classified as question marks. The buzz around Madison is that Carter will be the Badgers break out player in 2006. Key matchups are the WSU wide outs versus the UW safeties. The unit is ranked 1/4 by the publications.
The WSU passing game is the strength of the Cougar squad. The experience of this unit is an advantage that is magnified in a season opener. The WSU coaching staff will scheme to throw at Langford and the young UW safeties. Ike can turn a game around real quick and if they go after him it will be deep. The Cougars have an edge on paper here based on experience. Therefore, I give them the plus. Im sure there are Badger fans who will debate my analysis in this area. Under any scenario, the Badgers must put pressure on Brink to help out their young safeties.
Plus WSU
Special Teams:
Specials teams were a mess for both teams last year. The Cougars were ranked 112 overall and the Badgers were abysmal as well with many near disasters on punt and kickoff returns. UW is ranked 24th preseason in ST unit by P.Steele. This is based on the strength of returning kickers Melhoff and De Bauche. De Bauche was off his 2005 numbers and it remains to be seen if he regains his form. The good news for fans of both teams is that special teams changes from year to year more than any other aspect of the game due to wholesale changes in personnel.
Kickoffs take on increased importance this year with the kick coming five yards further back to the 30 yard line. This will result in fewer touchbacks and more returns. Most teams do not take live practice on kickoffs due to the high injury risk. Therefore, first games can be a crap shoot for these units.
I like the Badger kickers, but there is much more to special teams that booting the ball. Both teams have far to many question marks here to award them a plus. A push.
Analysis:
The pluses are 5 UW, 1 WSU, and a push. UW also has the home field advantage.
WSU has question marks on both sides of the ball. Perhaps the biggest concerns for Bill Doba and his staff are the patching together an offensive line and the inexperience of the Cougar secondary. Nonetheless, WSU has been a competitive team in the PAC 10 for several years and will compete with the Badgers. Last year the Cougars whipped UCLA and gave USC a scare. The Cougars are not deep and that will become an issue later in the year, but does not factor big in the opener.
The Badgers are looking for answers at left tackle and the safety positions. The Badger QB situation will be in good hands with Donovan who has starting experience. A good sign coming out of camp is that the Badger offense has held its own with the defense. Its conceivable that the defense could show improvement from its number two national rank in fewest points allowed last year. This Badger team is deep, talented, and has sufficient talent to find answers at left tackle and safety.
The Cougar defense will be a work in progress. They have some potential, but I look for the Badgers to exploit their inexperienced secondary. UW will do just that if WSU puts 8 in the box to stop the run. The Badger offense under Paul Chryst has shown the versatility to throw early and often depending on what the defense gives. Chrysts offense features a variety of screens and plays to the tight end. The ball is dispersed to a variety of targets including the backs. The combination of Hill, Hubbard, Beckum, and Swan will prove too much for the Cougar Defense.
On the other side of the ball respect must be paid to Brink and his fine receivers. WSU will move the chains and make things interesting between the twenty yard lines. WSU may generate a few running plays for 10 to 15 yards, but will not be able to sustain a ground attack, which will result in some third down and long situations. Putting WSU in third and long is important as it renders their offense one dimensional. The Badger defense will revert to 2006 form and be especially tough in the red zone where the field shrinks. The Cougars will not be able to run the ball effectively in the red zone allowing the pass rushers to tee off. UW cannot afford to allow Brink to sit in the pocket without pressure. Brink is not mobile making third and long a particularly bad down for this offense. While the Cougar offense will move the ball and have their moments, points will be hard to come by.
WSU simply has too many matchup problems to come out a winner in an even up game. The Cougars need a plus two or three in turnover margin to go home purring. That cat wont fly.
Prediction: The Badger program is looking for its tenth consecutive win and in the words of the Sonny and Cher classic-the Beat Goes On.
UW 31
WSU 17
Okay, thats the matchup for the season opener. I would like to know what you think and how you see the final score?
I am a Badger fan, unabashed. Nonetheless, I pride myself on providing a unbiased view of each teams strengths and weaknesses. If any homerism creeps in, I assure you its unintentional. In sum, this is a product of my football head not my football heart.
This is a different type of preview than you will find in a newspaper, magazine or as far as I know even on the internet. This preview attempts to evaluate the actual units that are on the field at the same time. Look below, you will get the hang of it quickly, its not complicated. We offer a unique perspective from the traditional QB v.QB and O-Line v. O-Line breakdowns, which to me have never made sense. Under the system below team one may have the superior running game over team two, but not get a plus. This is because the rushing defense of team two is thought to be equal to (a push) or better than (a plus) team ones rushing attack. In the end it amounts to organized speculation as opposed to random speculation. But it is, nevertheless, speculation and intended for enjoyment. So I try to have fun with it.
Until we have some stats from the current year to rely on, the first few previews will draw heavily from the number of starters returning and rankings of units within their respective conferences by a couple publications. College football changes greatly from year to year due to attrition. While talent cannot be denied, experience counts for a lot. Returning experience that has produced winning results counts the most.
Unit rankings: from Phil Steele and Athlon
and returning starters
WSU: QB RB WR OL DL LB DB
Phil Steele 4 8 4 7 3 9 8
Athlon 3 7 4 7 9* 7 10
Starters 1 1 2 3 3 1 1
Badgers: QB RB WR OL DL LB DB
P. Steele 8 1 4 3 2 6 4
Athlon 5 2 3 3 2 2 1
Starters 0 2 3 4 3 2 2
* note the disparity of the publications in ranking the WSU DL
UW Offensive Line v. WSU Defense Line
Wisconsin returns four starters to a unit that was very young in 2006. They must replace the best left tackle in CFB-Joe Thomas. Three of the returnees were first year starters and Urbick changed positions from guard to tackle. Assuming a natural progression these four should be better players. Gabe Carimi, who will get the first crack at LT, is a huge, 6'8" 295 lbs, redshirt freshman with excellent athletic ability. Urbik is the units best player, although Coleman and Vanden Heuvel also have all conference potential. The unit is a consensus 3rd best in conference per publications. The unit is big, averaging over 6'6" and 315 lbs, and can drive block, but had trouble in 06 with small and quick defenders finding a seam in the middle and getting to the QB. This unit is working toward becoming an elite line in the words of the position coach. They should be more productive as a unit in 2007. The key is whether the left tackle can mesh with the other four and produce the team play that is crucial for good OL play.
WSU has a 6'8" 300lb defensive tackle, Ropati Pitoitua, who is labeled a great potential guy, but has never produced big numbers over the course of a season. Pitoitua was injured for much of last year, which hurt the units productivity. The other DT is well over 300lbs. The ends are smallish and built to rush Qbs in the pass oriented Pac 10. There is a possibility that Pitoitua will move to DE to bolster the Cougar line against the UW ground attack. The unit is ranked 3rd and 9th by PS and Athlon respectively. I take the median and give them a 6th unit rank in conference. This is a good unit.
The Cougar DL has too many question marks to give them a plus. Pitoituas size and huge wingspan may be an advantage against a spread team, but I believe UW will run power right at him and test his durability to hold up against pounding for four quarters. I dont envision UW dominating the WSU line, but I think they can get some push and allow P.J. Hill to get to the linebackers often enough to rush for about 120 yards. Smith may have another 50 yards. These yards will come late in the game as I expect the Cougars to stack the box with eight defenders early and test the Badger QB. A key individual matchup is the WSU defensive end who plays over Gabe Carimi at left tackle. Carimi must be sound in his technique and hold his own. The big Badger beef possess a size and power advantage and will not have any trouble finding these Cougar linemen.
Small Plus UW
UW Backfield v. WSU Linebackers
PJ. Hill is a top ten returning running back in the country. He has lost weight and improved his quickness over 2006. His backup, Lance Smith, is improving and needs to demonstrate consistency. Chris Pressley returns at fullback after missing all of 06 with a leg injury. He has also been on slim fast and in hopes of getting more square hits on opposing linebackers. Pressley has exceptional power which is difficult for other teams to simulate in practice. Both of these players have all conference potential as reflected in the units rank of one and two in the publications. Rentmeester is more than an adequate backup for Pressley and brings hands to the passing game.
The Cougar linebackers are tough lunch pail type players. No one jumps out as an outstanding individual, but they are all good players. The median unit rank is 8th in conference by the publications. The best player here is Trent who plays the middle and is a hard nosed guy although undersized at a listed 5'11" 219lbs. Trent may have some problems in pass coverage and is no match for the size and power Pressley can bring to the ground game. Mattlingly, an outside backer, suffered an ankle sprain in fall camp and may be slowed.
Provided the OL can create some running seams, Hill, Smith, and Pressley are too much for the Cougar linebackers to stand up to for four quarters. The Badger ground attack will take its toll in the third and fourth quarters.
A big plus for UW
UW QB and Receivers v. WSU Secondary
The Badgers return both WRs and AA candidate tight end/WR Travis Beckum. They must replace three year starter and vastly underrated QB John Stocco. UW won a lot of games with Stocco at the helm. Tyler Donovan poses more of a running threat than Stocco, but lacks a big time arm. Donovans two career starts both resulted in wins. Hubbard is a weapon that cannot be ignored by defensive coordinators and is primed for a big season. If Hubbard can eliminate the drops that plagued him in 06 he will play on Sundays. Swan is the sure handed possession receiver who always gets open and has an ability to make the big play. Beckum presents a match up nightmare for D coordinators as he is too fast for linebackers and too big for safeties. He demands attention in the defensive game plan. Beckums talent forces a defense to bracket him almost all the time. Thus, the opposing team must choose between eight men in the box or Beckum being covered one on one. The defender who draws Beckum is in a key individual matchup situation. Crooks is a more than adequate compliment to Beckum and a much better blocker. Two tightends are a staple for this offense. The unit has a 3/4 conference unit ranking.
WSU is returning three starters from a porous secondary. A bad thing or good thing? The replacements will either be three JC transfers or two JCs and one true freshman. There is an abundance of questions here and no one, including the WSU coaching staff, will have the answer until a couple games are played. A play maker cannot be identified. The lone returnee is a good player, but has been nursing a shoulder injury. Median unit rank is 9th.
Despite having a new starter at QB, this is a very good matchup for UW. The level of talent in the WSU secondary is an unknown, but even assuming very good talent, they will require time to come together, communicate, and play as a unit. These guys have not even practiced together for long much less prepared for a game. There will be some blown coverages and mismatches that UW can exploit. Cougar fans who believe UWs offense is limited to the run will be shocked to know the UW passing game had a higher efficiency rating in 2006 than WSU. Under offensive coordinator Paul Chryst the Badgers will take what a defense gives. If this means throwing on first down or second and short then so be it. This is not your Ron Dayne-Mike Samuel Badger offense. UW can and will throw the ball despite the relative inexperience at QB.
Big Plus UW.
WSU Offensive Line v. UW Defensive Line
The Cougars return three starters to this unit. The line was average in 06. There is one position switch with the LT moving to right tackle. Also, one of the players counted on to be a replacement, Roof, was suspended and has not practiced. No outstanding player here, but in a spread offense the linemen are programmed to pass block and the ball comes out of the QBs hand quickly. You dont need to be a pro-prospect lineman to be an effective player in this system. The unit is ranked 7th in conference.
While three starters return to this unit, the UW DL is best described as an enigma. Shaugnessy and Chapman have all-conference potential, however have not played to that level thus far. UW goes 8 deep and will rotate players. The ability to rotate is extremely helpful against a spread offense. Ware, the projected starting DE, missed the first two weeks of camp with a knee injury. He will play, but may not be full go. DT Hayden had a drop off in 06 compared to his production in 05 and has lost weight hoping to regain some quickness. This group can stop the power running game but will give up the 15 to 20 yard burst to a spread offense. This unit needs to take their game to the next level for UW to have a successful season. Newkirk (DT) and Cooper (DE) figure to play significant roles against WSU given their speed and quickness. A key individual matchup is Shaugnessy against the Cougar left tackle, Lesuma. The unit is ranked second in both publications, which I consider a bit high.
WSU has too many question marks to get the plus here. Nonetheless, the spread offense does not demand great things from an OL. UW has some questions to be answered, but has depth that will allow it to rotate players and keep them fresh to chase the passer and running backs.
A small UW plus
WSU Backfield v. UW Linebackers
The Cougs will be counting on sophomores Chris Ivory and Dwight Tardy when they run their one back set. Tardy had a team high 667 yards last season. The run game is based on deception, which UW can be vulnerable to occasionally. These backs are ranked 7/8 in conference. Ivory may be the most talented of the duo, but Tardy starts. Again, there is no player that jumps out as a difference maker.
The UW linebackers are the heart and soul of the UW defense. Levy and Casillas are proven performers, while Hodge who has played will start for the first time. This unit is ranked either 6th (PS) or 2nd (Athlon). Which prompts me to ask what film PS was watching? I rate these LB as the best unit on the Wisconsin team and would take them over Penn States group whether it be a brawl or a football game. They are fast, experienced, and can make plays. Casillas can turn you over, while Levy and Hodge seek to punish any ball carrier who wanders into their domain. Casillas at 215lbs is one the fastest badgers and can double as a defensive back. Levy converts to a stand up defensive end and possesses an innate ability to rush the passer. This versatility allows UW to change defenses without tipping their hand with substitution. Did I say I like this group a lot?
Big Plus UW
WSU QB and Receivers v. UW Secondary
The Cougars return Alex Brink at QB, who last year completed 60% of his passes and was rated the 16th best passer in the country. Brink is an excellent passer, but is not mobile and lacks a cannon arm. Despite Brinks numbers he is criticized by fans for the won/loss record. Given sufficient time, Brink is capable of picking apart a defense. Receivers Mike Bumpus and Brandon Gibson return following productive years in 2006. The other receiver, Dillon, is a speedster and return specialist. Bumpus has been a possession receiver while Gibson and Dillon can stretch the field. Brink is ranked third and the receivers fourth in conference. Gibson versus the UW corners or safeties is a key individual matchup. This unit is the strength of the team and hopes to carry the Cougars while the defense and OL develop.
The Badgers return two outstanding corners to their secondary. Al Langford is a solid technician who is always in proper position to make a play. What Langford lacks in speed he makes up for in smarts. Langford will see a lot of pigskin thrown his way, because Jack Ikegwuonu is a difference maker at the field corner position. Ike was ranked as the best player in the Big Ten by one publication. He possesses great size, speed, change of direction, and he will play on Sundays. The safety positions will be manned by Shane Carter and Aubrey Pleasant, a pair of red shirt sophomores. Carter has been a play maker during spring ball and fall camp, but both safeties lack game experience, and therefore must be classified as question marks. The buzz around Madison is that Carter will be the Badgers break out player in 2006. Key matchups are the WSU wide outs versus the UW safeties. The unit is ranked 1/4 by the publications.
The WSU passing game is the strength of the Cougar squad. The experience of this unit is an advantage that is magnified in a season opener. The WSU coaching staff will scheme to throw at Langford and the young UW safeties. Ike can turn a game around real quick and if they go after him it will be deep. The Cougars have an edge on paper here based on experience. Therefore, I give them the plus. Im sure there are Badger fans who will debate my analysis in this area. Under any scenario, the Badgers must put pressure on Brink to help out their young safeties.
Plus WSU
Special Teams:
Specials teams were a mess for both teams last year. The Cougars were ranked 112 overall and the Badgers were abysmal as well with many near disasters on punt and kickoff returns. UW is ranked 24th preseason in ST unit by P.Steele. This is based on the strength of returning kickers Melhoff and De Bauche. De Bauche was off his 2005 numbers and it remains to be seen if he regains his form. The good news for fans of both teams is that special teams changes from year to year more than any other aspect of the game due to wholesale changes in personnel.
Kickoffs take on increased importance this year with the kick coming five yards further back to the 30 yard line. This will result in fewer touchbacks and more returns. Most teams do not take live practice on kickoffs due to the high injury risk. Therefore, first games can be a crap shoot for these units.
I like the Badger kickers, but there is much more to special teams that booting the ball. Both teams have far to many question marks here to award them a plus. A push.
Analysis:
The pluses are 5 UW, 1 WSU, and a push. UW also has the home field advantage.
WSU has question marks on both sides of the ball. Perhaps the biggest concerns for Bill Doba and his staff are the patching together an offensive line and the inexperience of the Cougar secondary. Nonetheless, WSU has been a competitive team in the PAC 10 for several years and will compete with the Badgers. Last year the Cougars whipped UCLA and gave USC a scare. The Cougars are not deep and that will become an issue later in the year, but does not factor big in the opener.
The Badgers are looking for answers at left tackle and the safety positions. The Badger QB situation will be in good hands with Donovan who has starting experience. A good sign coming out of camp is that the Badger offense has held its own with the defense. Its conceivable that the defense could show improvement from its number two national rank in fewest points allowed last year. This Badger team is deep, talented, and has sufficient talent to find answers at left tackle and safety.
The Cougar defense will be a work in progress. They have some potential, but I look for the Badgers to exploit their inexperienced secondary. UW will do just that if WSU puts 8 in the box to stop the run. The Badger offense under Paul Chryst has shown the versatility to throw early and often depending on what the defense gives. Chrysts offense features a variety of screens and plays to the tight end. The ball is dispersed to a variety of targets including the backs. The combination of Hill, Hubbard, Beckum, and Swan will prove too much for the Cougar Defense.
On the other side of the ball respect must be paid to Brink and his fine receivers. WSU will move the chains and make things interesting between the twenty yard lines. WSU may generate a few running plays for 10 to 15 yards, but will not be able to sustain a ground attack, which will result in some third down and long situations. Putting WSU in third and long is important as it renders their offense one dimensional. The Badger defense will revert to 2006 form and be especially tough in the red zone where the field shrinks. The Cougars will not be able to run the ball effectively in the red zone allowing the pass rushers to tee off. UW cannot afford to allow Brink to sit in the pocket without pressure. Brink is not mobile making third and long a particularly bad down for this offense. While the Cougar offense will move the ball and have their moments, points will be hard to come by.
WSU simply has too many matchup problems to come out a winner in an even up game. The Cougars need a plus two or three in turnover margin to go home purring. That cat wont fly.
Prediction: The Badger program is looking for its tenth consecutive win and in the words of the Sonny and Cher classic-the Beat Goes On.
UW 31
WSU 17
Okay, thats the matchup for the season opener. I would like to know what you think and how you see the final score?
