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Moshalito wrote:

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http://www.cogitamusblog.com/2008/02/bold-prediction.html

Moshalito wrote:

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I thought maybe you'd respond to his scenario. I'm not naive enough to think he's right, necessarily, but I did find it enjoyable reading.

I'm not sensing any enthusiasm from the Hillary side. It's like there are millions of voters saying, "I guess I'll pick Hillary." The Obama people are fired up. I'm sure this will be confirmed tonight at the Kohl Center, and I'll report on it. When I just look at numbers and data, Hillary still seems to have a bit of an advantage. But my judgment (which could very well be wrong) tells me Obama has more upside from this point forward.

Yes, the Obama people are more enthusiastic, possibly because, on average, they're younger. There's a correlation between age and enthusiasm, as we often see in Football Board rants about "old people" at Camp Randall. But remember, the "old people" give more and buy proportionately more tickets. Obama's challenge, as I've said before, is to win in a big state. He's got three more chances: Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania. If he can't do that, the superdelegates will take note. He's on a roll, but he's still a bit behind (about 500,000 in popular votes and around 100 in delegates, depending on who's doing the estimating). And no one's sure what will happen with Florida and Michigan. Let's let the voters vote and see where it comes out.