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Sorry for the delay. Here are the next two exchanges. First KC's response to the e-mail I posted above, and then my reply to that.

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KC:
Look, I'll stop making excuses about getting that article wrong if and when Wisconsin fans stop making excuses for Wilson's gaffes. He did some great things last year but if he was as great as Badgers fans keep saying he is, he would not have made those gaffes and your team would have been playing for a national title.

Two other quick notes. First, of course people who make predictions get some things wrong. And if they can't deal with that, they shouldn't be in the prediction business.

Second, most Wisconsin fans who are bashing me for this are the same people who were saying how brilliant my article about Montee Ball deserving the Heisman Trophy was. It's a matter of seeing things through a Wisconsin prism. If the O'Brien transfer does work out well, I'm sure you will be sending me an email telling me how stupid I am. If, on the other hand, it doesn't work out well, I'm sure you will say nothing and just wait for the next time I get something wrong. It's hard to take that type of criticism seriously.

KC
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Ryebadger's reply:

Your argument is quantifiably and demonstrably wrong. Wilson was as good as he had to be for UW to go to the national title game. Had the defense done what it was supposed to do on 2 plays AFTER Wilson did what he was supposed to do, UW is playing for a national title. End of story. It's also not any kind of stretch to say Wilson was every bit as good as we expected and more. The statistics prove it. No college QB has ever had a better season by the most reliable statistical measure. I don't have to make excuses for his "gaffes," unless you are arguing that no great QB makes them at all. Is that your argument, that as long as a QB makes a gaffe he belongs alongside Herschel Walker as the greatest disappointment in football history? Because even in spite of whatever gaffes you say he made, he still had Wisconsin two poor, last second defensive plays from the national title game, during the best statistical season by a QB in college football history.

Put it this way. Why don't you tell me a QB who was less of a bust, and I'll point out that he either made a gaffe, didn't win the national title or failed to set an NCAA record for QB Efficiency rating. Meanwhile, I await your article arguing that AJ McCarron and Jordan Jefferson were better QBs than Russell Wilson last year. They didn't make gaffes that prevented their teams from playing in the national title game, so by your measure they were better. They were awful, yet benefited from great defenses. If Russell Wilson had the exact same season he did last year but the LSU or Alabama defense supporting him, is there any doubt he plays for a national title? Give him 2 players off either defense and that is still true. He was only 2 defensive plays away as it was, and with an average defense at that.

Your closing paragraph also misses the mark. I didn't criticize you for being wrong. I'm far too busy to write a letter to every journalist who flames out on a prediction. I criticized you because you were so spectacularly wrong about Russell Wilson it's almost hard to put it in words, and also because you didn't miss a beat in making the same prediction a year later without even alluding to the fact that you got the first one wrong. Let's not ignore that the big problem here was your choice to use that highly unfortunate Herschel Walker reference, which was so over the top and grandiose that you set yourself up for the criticism you are now getting. The further out on a limb you go, the more violently the limb will snap. And you went way, way out on a limb, my friend. So far out on the limb you can't even see the damned tree. You predicted not just a potential disappointment but a bust of historic proportions. When Wilson turned out to be an historic success instead, your article looked even worse. So, if you don't like being heavily criticized it might be a good idea to avoid the hyperbolic, top of your voice, attention seeking predictions that are more apt to fall flat. Nobody will get on you for being wrong if you were also reasonable, but your article was far from reasonable (as is your current attempt to defend it by arguing that you were "mostly spot on"). College QBs aren't the only ones who have to answer for their gaffes, right?

It continued. KC's response, and my reply to that are below.

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KC:

The Walker reference was in regards to how over the top Wisconsin fans were regarding Wilson's arrival. And you are using the same level of hyperbole in analyzing that article. It says, "the impact of a Wilson-Wisconsin pairing could be just as overhyped, and potentially as disappointing, as the Walker-Vikings pairing." It didn't say it he would be a bust and in fact said that the acquisition had the looks of being a "significant upgrade" over their existing prospects. It also said that the idea that "the chances he will automatically run off seven or conference victories...or guide his team to an unbeaten season on the way to a berth in the BCS title game seem quite low." Wisconsin didn't go to the BCS title game, go unbeaten or even win seven conference games (at least not in the regular season, which is what the article was referring to), so it hit the nail on the head in many respects.

To be fair, the move did not reach the Walker level of disappointment but no national title, three losses and a Rose Bowl sure did not add up to the "we're winning the national championship!!!!!!!!!!!!" expectations Badgers fans were bantering about when he arrived. Had they kept a level head about the Wilson acquisition, the Walker reference would not have been apt, but their over the top bragging in advance about a national championship they had yet to win set the introductory tone for the article.

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Ryebadger:

I hope you have a rear view mirror attached to your forehead to keep you safe from all the back peddling you're doing. Your intent was clear. You tried to analyze why Russell Wilson would not thrive in UW's system. Your main point was that he would not. To illustrate just how badly you thought this would work out for Wisconsin, you invoked arguably the disappointing personnel move in football history. In order for your article to have been "on the mark," Russell Wilson's performance and Wisconsin's season would have to have been historically disappointing. They were not. Wilson had the best statistical season by any QB in college football history. As a result of his 4th quarter heroics his team was two flukey defensive plays from playing in the National Championship game. Even as it were they won the Big Ten, won the Conference Championship game and went to the Rose Bowl, where they didn't exactly lose because of Russell Wilson or a poor offense. Now, in my mind that is not a disappointment of historic proportions. I suspect the Vikings would have been happy with a similar result, though the different dynamics between the NFL and NCAA football only underscore why your analogy was so stunningly poor. The trade was a bust for the Vikings because they gave up so many players and draft picks it essentially gutted the franchise for a decade or more. Even you wouldn't dare to argue the Russell Wilson transfer had a remotely similar effect (although your e-mails to me leave that very much in doubt). The Russell Wilson transfer was a stunning success by any measure. I dare you to find any football expert (and here I'll reserve the right to define what that means in light of your own misleading title) who disagrees. He would laugh at the thought. Just as I am laughing at you.

I follow Wisconsin football far more closely than you do. I can tell you fans were excited about Wilson's arrival but if there was a significant component of the fanbase jumping up and down guaranteeing a national title, I didn't see it. Perhaps there was the odd fan who said that, but most of us knew enough to dismiss that as an outlier. Not you. Instead, you wrote an entire article based upon an irresponsible prediction that barely comprised a blip on the radar of general opinion. Most Wisconsin fans thought the Wilson transfer took UW from a team with a major question mark to a conference favorite and dark horse national title contender. That was the weight of opinion among the media, too (I mean the real media). Alas, that's exactly what they were. A conference champion and two busted defensive plays from the National Title game. Your perspective? Some loudmouth Wisconsin fan that no sane journalist would ever take seriously predicted a national title and it really really bugged me! So I'm going to create a straw man based on this annoying fan's bragging and write an entire article predicting the Russell Wilson transfer will be as disappointing as any personnel move in football history. Then, when Wisconsin fails to when the National Championship, I'll say I was right!

I know members of the sports media like to bash the great unwashed on message boards and lord their insightful analysis over us casual fans. The next time you see that type of proverbial water cooler discussion going on (if your proverbial basement has one) or a bunch of seasoned pros yucking it up at how stupid the masses are, do yourself a favor: abstain. I don't know who you have naked pictures of or who your father knows or who you bribed to get a press pass, but the only thing this exchange has taught me is that the line between professional and amateur sportswriter is thinner than your logic.

Cheers!
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