UW Economist predicted state's job losses in Political Science Forum

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UW Economist predicted state's job losses

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Bucky4077	UW Economist predicted state's job losses		Lead	[-]
Posts: 2414 April 28, 2012 5:21 PM	Tags : None Remove this ad From today's madison.com: "Who could have predicted at this time last year that Wisconsin would experience the nation's largest percentage decrease in employment over the next 12 months? Um, UW-Madison economist Steven Deller could have. And did. Last March, Deller, a professor of applied economics, studied the ripple effects of Gov. Scott Walker's budget-repair bill and two-year budget proposal. Deller felt Walker's plans to balance the state's budget by cutting spending and public workers' take-home pay will slow the state's economic recovery. In a story in the March 20, 2011, State Journal, Deller estimated Wisconsin would lose more than 21,000 jobs as public agencies and workers were able to spend less. According to the most recent numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wisconsin lost 23,900 jobs from March 2011 to March 2012. So take that, students who roll their eyes at Deller's lectures (you know who you are). Deller said his prescient estimate was the result of simple economics. "You take billions out of the economy and there will be ripples, and those ripples are jobs," he said. So, what does Deller predict for next March? He doesn't. He said the state's current political upheaval makes it impossible to get an accurate read on employment the next 12 months. I guess we will have to accept that answer, even if it is a bit like taking your chips and leaving the poker table early." Read more: http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/on-the-capitol-sometimes-those-economists-know-what-they-re/article_9869b514-90ac-11e1-993c-001a4bcf887a.html#ixzz1tNOHFyXO "The teacher are paying for it. The state budget is balanced. Everything is great now." Blab of Bacon 7/20/11
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BigAppleBucky		#1	[url]	[-]
Posts: 10783 April 28, 2012 7:29 PM	I doubt if most such estimates are that close. Too many random factors. Once, during a financial audit, I did a statistical sample to test for understatement of accounts payable at year end. I forget the number I came up with, but it might have been something like $7,050,000. The client, of course, refused to book an adjustment based on a statistical sample. So an assistant and I went through two months of subsequent payments and came up with (again a made up number, but similar) $6,997,000, which the client then booked. I told the client missing amount simply had not been processed yet. Sometimes you get lucky. Remember when teachers, public employees, Unions, Planned Parenthood, Acorn, NPR and PBS crashed the stock market, wiped out half of our 401Ks, took trillions in TARP money, spilled oil in the Gulf of Mexico, gave themselves billions in bonuses, and paid no taxes? * * * Me neither.
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yanked		#2	[url]	[-]
Posts: 17422 April 28, 2012 8:16 PM	What job losses? Unemployment in WI is tracking better than it is nationally...... As I suspected, progressives have a Koch Fetish.
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TheMonsignor		#3	[url]	[-]
Posts: 7094 April 28, 2012 9:20 PM Phil King "200 lbs, dripping wet"	Walker's budget was the equivalent of a huge tax increase on a selected group of Wisconsin residents. That a decision to suck so much money out of people's pockets would have a deleterious effect on the state economy during a recession was very predictable. Bless the Badgers.
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BigAppleBucky		#4	[url]	[-]
Posts: 10783 April 29, 2012 12:40 PM	TheMonsignor wrote: Walker's budget was the equivalent of a huge tax increase on a selected group of Wisconsin residents. That a decision to suck so much money out of people's pockets would have a deleterious effect on the state economy during a recession was very predictable. It's more complex than that. If the tax increase to teachers was passed on within the state to taxpayers making about the same incomes, there would have been little effect. If the tax increase on the teachers was passed on as a tax decrease to out of state business owners, then, yes, there would be a negative effect on the state's employment numbers. The later appears to have been what happened. But hitting that close on the numbers is like betting on and hitting 00 in roulette. It happens, but only 1 in 38 times. Going from 2,754,500 jobs in March 2011 to 2,730,600 in March 2012 is not a huge percentage drop, just 0.868%. Still, it's not good. /bit.ly/x6vy5V">http://bit.ly/x6vy5V"> Remember when teachers, public employees, Unions, Planned Parenthood, Acorn, NPR and PBS crashed the stock market, wiped out half of our 401Ks, took trillions in TARP money, spilled oil in the Gulf of Mexico, gave themselves billions in bonuses, and paid no taxes? * * * Me neither. Edited 2 times by BigAppleBucky April 29, 2012 7:49 PM.
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yanked		#5	[url]	[-]
Posts: 17422 April 29, 2012 3:53 PM	What myth are we talking about here? WI is doing better than the US, on average, the state economy is fine, except in areas where its dragged down by poor federal policy. As I suspected, progressives have a Koch Fetish.
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MarkIt8		#6	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1578 April 29, 2012 8:21 PM Jobu needs a refill	Remove this ad yanked wrote: What myth are we talking about here? WI is doing better than the US, on average, the state economy is fine, except in areas where its dragged down by poor federal policy. This is what happens when everything you know about the state's economy comes from reading Blab's posts.
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yanked		#7	[url]	[-]
Posts: 17422 April 29, 2012 8:37 PM	MarkIt8 wrote: yanked wrote: What myth are we talking about here? WI is doing better than the US, on average, the state economy is fine, except in areas where its dragged down by poor federal policy. This is what happens when everything you know about the state's economy comes from reading Blab's posts. True or False, WI's unemployment is tracking better than national unemployment. As I suspected, progressives have a Koch Fetish.
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WestCoastBadger		#8	[url]	[-]
Posts: 5742 April 29, 2012 8:44 PM	It's a fun game choosing which metrics are the effects of state vs. national policy and which time periods those effects take place.
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BigAppleBucky		#9	[url]	[-]
Posts: 10783 May 1, 2012 6:24 AM	WestCoastBadger wrote: It's a fun game choosing which metrics are the effects of state vs. national policy and which time periods those effects take place. In this case, the March to March comparison was the 1st anniversary of the Wisconsin anti-labor law, so the period has some validity. (Like looking at UW's football record since 1993, the year Penn State joined the conference.) Remember when teachers, public employees, Unions, Planned Parenthood, Acorn, NPR and PBS crashed the stock market, wiped out half of our 401Ks, took trillions in TARP money, spilled oil in the Gulf of Mexico, gave themselves billions in bonuses, and paid no taxes? * * * Me neither.
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Blab of Bacon		#10	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3646 May 1, 2012 6:50 AM Beware the milkman!	TheMonsignor wrote: Walker's budget was the equivalent of a huge tax increase on a selected group of Wisconsin residents. That a decision to suck so much money out of people's pockets would have a deleterious effect on the state economy during a recession was very predictable. That makes absolutely no sense. Public employees are paid from the taxpayers' pockets. The money not spent on a public employee simply remains in the pockets of everybody else, including those public employees. What does help the economy is that Walker lowered property taxes and kept $228 million in the pockets of the property owners. That keeps money in the marketplace.
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MarkIt8		#11	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1578 May 1, 2012 7:38 AM Jobu needs a refill	Blab of Bacon wrote: TheMonsignor wrote: Walker's budget was the equivalent of a huge tax increase on a selected group of Wisconsin residents. That a decision to suck so much money out of people's pockets would have a deleterious effect on the state economy during a recession was very predictable. That makes absolutely no sense. Public employees are paid from the taxpayers' pockets. The money not spent on a public employee simply remains in the pockets of everybody else, including those public employees. What does help the economy is that Walker lowered property taxes and kept $228 million in the pockets of the property owners. That keeps money in the marketplace. You are wrong. Taking 8% out of the checks of all public employees vs the comparitively undetectable increase in taxes from the entire state will have a much greater impact on the state's economy as a whole. If your property taxes were $20 higher last year it would have had 0 impact on what you did with your money. Please note that this post in no way says we should raise taxes on everybody to be able to pay the public employees more, it is only meant to point out that you are wrong about the impact of taking money out of the state workers checks vs. taking $228M out of the state's property owners.
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Blab of Bacon		#12	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3646 May 1, 2012 7:52 AM Beware the milkman!	Remove this ad MarkIt8 wrote: Blab of Bacon wrote: TheMonsignor wrote: Walker's budget was the equivalent of a huge tax increase on a selected group of Wisconsin residents. That a decision to suck so much money out of people's pockets would have a deleterious effect on the state economy during a recession was very predictable. That makes absolutely no sense. Public employees are paid from the taxpayers' pockets. The money not spent on a public employee simply remains in the pockets of everybody else, including those public employees. What does help the economy is that Walker lowered property taxes and kept $228 million in the pockets of the property owners. That keeps money in the marketplace. You are wrong. Taking 8% out of the checks of all public employees vs the comparitively undetectable increase in taxes from the entire state will have a much greater impact on the state's economy as a whole. If your property taxes were $20 higher last year it would have had 0 impact on what you did with your money. Please note that this post in no way says we should raise taxes on everybody to be able to pay the public employees more, it is only meant to point out that you are wrong about the impact of taking money out of the state workers checks vs. taking $228M out of the state's property owners. You misread what I wrote. Where are the dollars that were taken out of the state workers checks? In the taxpayer pockets. Still in the state's economy. The $228 million is money that also remains in the taxpayer pockets and not possessed by the government.
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UW Economist predicted state's job losses

UW Economist predicted state's job losses